Quarterbacks
There is a lot of strategy when deciding when to take your QB in a draft. Our league seems to score a little higher then most leagues at this position. We tweaked it a few years ago to make it more balance. But it still tends to be our highest point scoring position. Aaron Rodgers was the top player
in fantasy last year with a average of 30.2. But wasn't
drafted until 26th. While Matt Ryan averaged 27.1 but wasn't drafted until 173. In this write up you will see 24 of the top QB's in the league and another one named Siemien. I will break them down into 5 tiers so that you can see were there getting drafted and to also show you that if you wait you can get a good QB in mid rounds. But if you decide to go for a top 5 QB then you might want to jump on that early in top 4 rounds. Aaron Rodgers will be the one people try to get early. After he goes, there will be a small panic while we wait to see who takes Brees and then Ryan and even Cousins after that. But once Cousins goes i think there will be a little wait on the QB selection. Actually, as i think and write at same time, i am sure someone will take Luck pretty early. We do have several Colts fans in the league lol. I just dont know much about Luck and his injury's. If he is suiting up and ready to go in week one then he could be the 3rd QB drafted after Brees.
Out of the top 50 fantasy players in are league last year. Did you know that 25 of them were QBs? In are 2016 draft there were 5 QB's drafted in top 6 rounds and one of them was a keeper (Newton). Other 5, in order were. Rodgers, Brees, Luck and Wilson. But Matt Ryan was drafted 173 but finished 4th in fantasy points in are league. Actually let me just show you were each QB was drafted and were they finished in are league.
This shows you each QB and were they finished in top 50 in are league (Top 50) and then also it shows were they were drafted last year (2016 DP). Just for fun i will also throw in there average draft position for this year (ADP)
QB---Top 50---2016 DP--2017 ADP
Rodgers------1--------26---------40-----------
Brees--------3--------30----------54--------
Ryan--------4-------173--------63---------
Cousins------5-------99--------105--------
Luck-------8-------37---------74--------
Carr-------9-------88-------114------
Stafford------10-------105-------124---------
Prescott------12-------FA-------112---------
Bortles------14-------134-------Over 181
Wilson------15-------41-------87---------
Flacco------16-------FA-------Over 181
Brady-------17-------63-------Keeper---
Dalton-------18-------136-------170-------
Roethlisberger--19-------66--------122-----------
Winston-------20-------135--------116-------
Rivers------22-------93--------146---
Mariota------23-------148-------132------
Taylor ------24-------143--------138---
Manning-------25-------72-------Over 181
Palmer -------26-------104------Over 181
Newton-------27-------Keeper----98------
Bradford-------33-------FA-------Over 181
Wentz-------35-------FA-------177---
Smith-------38-------FA-------Over 181
Siemian------50-------FA------Over 181
This shows there average per game last year and I will add there ADP again just to show you how late there getting drafted. But try and keep in mind that this is ESPN's ADP grades. So if you subtract 12 from each guys ADP then that would really be more accurate for our league because of are first round Keepers.
TIER 1
Rodgers 30.2----40
Brees 28.7----54
Brady 28.3----43
Ryan 27.1----63
--------------------------
Tier 2
Cousins 25.7----105
Luck 24.1----74
Carr 23.1----114
Stafford 23.1----124
Prescott 22.9----112
---------------------------
Tier 3
Bortles 22.6--↑181
Wilson 21.9----87
Flacco 21.6-- ↑181
Dalton 21.2----170
Roethilisberger 21.2----122
-----------------------------
TIER 4
Winston 21.0----116
Rivers 20.9----146
Mariota 20.7----132
Taylor 20.5----138
Manning 20.2---- ↑181
----------------------------
TIER 5
Palmer 19.9--↑ 181
Newton 19.9----98
Bradford 19.2--↑181
Wentz 19.1----177
Smith 19.0--↑ 181
------------------------------
Tier 6
Siemien 15.9---- ↑ 181
*****BONUS STAT*****
So now lets take a look at our top 50 excluding the QBs.
WR's = 24/50
RB's = 23/50
TE's = 3/50
It is hard for me to believe in taking Gronk in first or second round. It will most likely be that he goes in top 20 of are draft because it happens every year. Last year he went 7....... Yea i just laughed at that number too lol. But with that said, Gronk has the potential for 20 TD season. But the chances he stays healthy and plays every game are very slim. I say gamble on a different TE. But thats my opinion. Here are the top 5 TE's ADP for this year for our league.
Gronkowski 15
Reed 27
Kelce 41
Olsen 45
Rudolph 76
Now that you see there ADP, i want to tell you that Kelce was the number one TE in fantasy last year and he was drafted 54th while averaging 14.7 a game. Now I heard this on a podcast and I will share it with all my loyal blog readers. But did you know that if you streamed the best available TE vs the bottom 3 teams who are worst vs TE's last year then you would of out scored the team that had Kelce as there TE. Meaning that you don't have to waste that early pick on a Gronk or Reed. I suspect Reed will fall mostly because of his injury prone ways anyway. But the difference between the 11th ranked TE Witten and Kelce was just 5 points per game last year. But there are many strategy's for this game and I hope you find the one that works best for you. Enjoy your upcoming Fantasy Season!
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